The freight market has faced significant challenges over the past few years, and 2025 shows no signs of breaking the cycle. Rates continue to struggle, truckload demand remains unstable, and looming tariff policies add to the unpredictability. As we progress into the new quarter, how will the market go from here?
Dry van spot rates have dropped another $0.04 per mile, bringing the national average to $1.68 per mile (excluding fuel). On the top 50 lanes by volume, carriers managed $2.00 per mile, which is still $0.32 above the national average. Despite this, their is still a downward trend. Jason Miller, an expert in the industry, warns that unless rates climb back up in March, there is a high possibility of an extended downturn. The statement about the premature declaration of an upward pricing cycle appears to be correct as the market struggles.
Big disruptions are effecting Laredo, Texas, the largest of the U.S.-Mexico trucking hubs. Tender rejection rates have spiked to over 6%, up from 3.8% in the last quarter, driven by a 10% year-over-year increase in demand. Shippers are front-loading freight across the border to avoid potential cost hikes from tariffs, causing a short-term increase. However, Laredo's chronic freight imbalance makes it a challenging market for carriers. In contrast, Los Angeles is experiencing a boom due to surging Asian imports, keeping rejection rates below 3% despite increased freight volumes.
On a positive note, Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy has announced the authorization of a new Texan Port. The new port will be able to ship 1 million barrels of oil per day. 85 thousand barrels of oil will be able to move per hour. There will be new opportunities for your business with the addition of the Texas Gulf Link Port.
However, the main wildcard in the market right now is tariffs. The Trump administration's tariff policy means that every country taxing U.S. imports will see the same tax applied to their goods. Some nations who don't apply any tariffs will also see import tax's on certain items such as Steel and Aluminum. The Inflation increase of 3% last month isn't helping either, on top of Avian Flu scares increasing the price of eggs drastically by 53% on average. The tariffs on metal & other nations could have a significant impact, especially in the automotive and manufacturing sectors. If companies adjust their sourcing strategies due to tariffs, we could see major shifts in freight demand. There is a very high chance that the dry van sector will get stuck in its current market situation. The reefer market also remains volatile, with stable capacity but emerging hotspots in cities like Baltimore, Boston, and Philadelphia, where demand is 30% higher for some lanes. With cross-border tariffs looming, these rates may become unstable.
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